The beginning of next year will be difficult, but in 2021 I see more reasons for optimism than for writing black scenarios - says Paweł Borys, president of the Polish Development Fund in Rzeczpospolita on Monday.
"In economic terms, 2021 promises to be much better than 2020. We can count on GDP growth of about 5%. accelerate public investments and private investments with a slight delay, believes the head of PFR.
He added that, of course, these forecasts are subject to a stable situation and the disappearance of the pandemic in the second half of the year as well as the absence of secondary economic shocks in Europe in the form of the debt crisis or rising unemployment and the stability of the banking sector. "At the moment, the scale of state intervention reduces the risk of such shocks and it is important that the withdrawal of this aid is well correlated with the economic recovery. In Poland, the industries most affected by the second wave of the pandemic have no more than 3-5% share in total employment" - he noted interlocutor of "Rzeczpospolita".
"Now, of course, there will be a seasonal rise in unemployment, but if the economy grows dynamically in the second and third quarter of next year, it will create jobs, which will allow people who lost them during the pandemic to find employment. So if the unemployment rate increases, it should not be significant. And rather temporary, "said Boris.
He emphasized that if the vaccines prove effective, after the launch of public investments, probably from the second or third quarter of next year, there are chances that at the turn of 2021 and 2022 there will be a very dynamic rebound in total investment. "Maybe even double-digit. In general, I think that if the pandemic goes back, the years 2021-2023, with the use of domestic money, the Reconstruction Fund and from another EU perspective, with the expansive government policy, may be a period of return to strong growth in the range -6 percent " - added the president of PFR.
As he said, "with such a large dose of negative emotions and bad news in 2020, I try to focus on what gives hope and optimism. Especially the beginning of the year will be still difficult, but in 2021 I see more reasons for optimism than for writing black people. scenarios ". (PAP)
Author: Marcin Musiał