In 2025, over 500,000 people can drive on Polish roads. passenger cars and delivery vans with electric drive (BEV and PHEV) - estimates the Polish Alternative Fuels Association in the latest edition of the "Polish EV Outlook" report.
For the purposes of "Polish EV Outlook 2020", the PSPA has developed a number of electromobility development scenarios, invariants assuming the implementation of financial or tax incentives, as well as the lack of state support. Forecasts take into account a number of other factors as well as the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
In a realistic scenario, assuming the introduction of subsidies in the form of grants from the National Fund for Environmental Protection and Water Management in an increased amount compared to the pilot programs launched in 2020, the Polish fully electric car park (BEV) in 2025 may amount to approx. 317 thousand. pieces - estimated in the report. The plug-in hybrid could be just over 204,000 in this scenario, so in total it could be over 500,000. electric cars.
As PSPA managing director Maciej Mazur notes, it is estimated that without support, the number of electric cars will be almost two times smaller. "By optimizing financial incentives, in 2030 the cumulative number of BEV registrations may exceed 955,000. pcs " - added.
"Including plug-in hybrids (PHEV), the park of which in Poland is forecast at 653,000 in 2030, in 10 years there may be up to 1.6 million electric cars on Polish roads, assessed Mazur.
According to the data of IBRM Samar, which is the content partner of the report, at the end of 2020, the electric car park in Poland consisted of 20,181 BEV and PHEV passenger cars and vans. The number of all-electric vehicles (BEVs) was 9,751 (48.3%), and the number of plug-in hybrids - 10,000. 430 pcs (51.7%). From January to December 2020, 8323 used and 1673 new EVs were registered in Poland.
The "Polish EV Outlook 2020" shows that most electric cars - over 25 %. the entire park - registered in Warsaw. The capital is also responsible for about 20%. sales of BEV and PHEV in Poland. 28% of EVs were registered in cities with 300,000 or more. up to 1 million inhabitants - in Kraków, Łódź, Wrocław, Poznań, Gdańsk, Szczecin, Bydgoszcz and Lublin.
In smaller urban centres with a population of 150 thousand. to 300 thousand, 11.3% were registered. electric cars in Poland. In turn, in cities with a population of 50 to 150 thousand, 10.7% drives. all EVs. In 10 Polish poviats not a single electric car has been registered yet.
“So far, electromobility is concentrated mainly in the largest metropolises, but in recent months the share of the capital has clearly decreased. Most electric cars per 1 thousand residents are still registered in Warsaw. The next places are taken by Poznań, Kraków, Wrocław and Katowice, "says Jan Wiśniewski from the PSPA Research and Analysis Center. (PAP)